A window of opportunity is opening. The question is whether buyers are going to take advantage of it.
Here is the full September 2026 market update for Orange County.
New Listings: Down 15% Year Over Year
he trend continues. Fewer new listings are coming to market, down 15% from what we saw at this time last year. A softer market is keeping more sellers on the sidelines, and that dynamic is actually working in an interesting way: the reduced supply is keeping the overall market stronger than it would be if new listings were hitting at a normal pace.
Fewer sellers listing means less competition among buyers for the homes that are available. That cuts both ways, but right now it is keeping prices from falling as much as a pure demand slowdown might suggest.
Active Listings: Down 5% Year Over Year, Curve Flattening
The pace of inventory growth is slowing. July of last year was when active listings peaked. This year we are still trending upward, but the curve has nearly flattened. We are only 5% below the active listing count from this time last year, which is a narrowing gap from what we had been seeing.
The critical question heading into fall: will inventory hold at current levels or even grow through winter, or will it drop off sharply the way it did last year? Either way, the current inventory level represents a genuine opportunity for buyers who are prepared to move.
Closed Sales: Down 15% Year Over Year
Fewer deals are closing compared to this time last year. Fifteen percent fewer, to be precise. Less inventory, fewer motivated sellers, and fewer buyers putting transactions together is the straightforward explanation.
What the headline number does not capture is what is happening inside those deals. The buyers who are active and prepared right now are winning real savings. Sellers who have overpriced their homes are dealing with the consequences. The gap between outcomes for well-prepared buyers and unprepared buyers is wider than it has been in years.
Days on Market: Down 5% Year Over Year
This one seems counterintuitive given everything else in the data. The market is softer and yet homes sold a bit faster than the prior month? Here is the explanation.
Sellers who recognized that the market was shifting adjusted their strategy. Pricing aggressively, preparing the home well, and marketing it properly produced fast results even in a softening environment. Those listings moved. The ones that did not check all three boxes sat and dragged the average in the other direction.
There was also a surge in buyer activity in the last two weeks of August as families wrapped up summer and kids returned to school. That compressed timeline likely contributed to the faster pace.
The three-point framework holds:
— Looks good relative to the price
— Priced right relative to how it looks
— Marketed well beyond just the MLS and an open house
Miss any one of those three and you are taking a beating on value in this market.
Sales Price: $1,200,000, Up 3.7% Year Over Year
Prices dipped from last month, which mirrors exactly what happened in August of 2025. The August median is typically one of the lower months of the year. Based on current market signals, prices should rebound modestly in October.
The more useful frame is year over year. We are up 3.7% from this time last year. Month-to-month price movement in this market is noise. The chart goes up, then down, then up again. When you zoom out, the longer-term trajectory is clear and consistent.
A quick but relevant personal note: an investment property purchased last year has dropped in value by roughly 10% in the last 12 months. Does that make it a bad investment? It depends entirely on the plan. The plan is a 10-year hold before selling and reinvesting into a larger property. Over ten years, appreciation is the expectation. One bad year in isolation is not the story.
That is exactly how real estate works for most investors and homeowners. You buy and let time do the work.
Interest Rates: 6.7%, Essentially Unchanged Year Over Year
Rates are sitting at approximately 6.7%, which is almost identical to where they were this time last year. A year of significant rate headlines has produced almost no movement in the actual rate.
Our messaging has not changed. Rates will likely trend gradually downward over time, but the range we have been in for the past year is probably where we stay for the foreseeable future. It is nothing worth waiting for. Plan for this being the market and make decisions accordingly.
What This Means for Buyers
The window is opening. Inventory is near normal healthy levels, seller motivation is increasing, and the buyers who are prepared to move quickly are finding real opportunities that were not available six months ago.
The right move right now is to get prepared before you need to be. Do a Buyer Strategy Session. Get your financing in order. Know exactly what you are looking for so that when the right property comes up, you can act.
This window will not stay open indefinitely. Once rates move meaningfully or inventory tightens again, the leverage shifts. Prepared buyers in the next few months have a genuine advantage.
What This Means for Sellers
A softer market does not mean you cannot sell well. It means the margin for error is smaller. Sellers who prepare their home, price it correctly from day one, and work with an agent who knows how to actually market a property, not just put it on the MLS and wait, are still getting strong results and selling quickly.
Sellers who are overpricing, under-preparing, or working with agents who are not active in the current market are getting passed up. The difference between those two outcomes in this market is significant.
Quick Stats: September 2026
— New Listings: down 15% year over year
— Active Listings: down 5% year over year
— Closed Sales: down 15% year over year
— Days on Market: down 5% year over year
— Median Sale Price: up 3.7% year over year
— Interest Rates: 6.7%, essentially flat year over year
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